You must be present to win: Don’t rely on turnout predictions

With early voting underway in Texas, political observers are already analyzing voter turnout numbers and predicting what they might mean for the general election. Comparisons with previous elections, primary turnout, and early voting totals are fueling speculation about which candidates or parties have the advantage.

Turnout numbers can be interesting, but trying to make predictions on them is tricky at best—and too often, early voting turnout numbers serve as a distraction, and partisan types aren’t above using them to dissuade others from going to the polls. Relying on an early vote forecast is certainly no substitute for showing up to vote and encouraging others to do the same.

Why you can’t rely on early vote forecasts

Early vote forecasts are based upon assumptions about the electorate’s past history. Has a voter participated in a prior primary election, and, if so, was it a Republican or a Democratic primary? Prognosticators take that data and assume someone who voted in the Republican primary will vote for Republicans in the general election and likewise for someone who voted in the Democratic primary. But that’s an especially dangerous game to play in a state like Texas that has open primaries—particularly when savvy Texans have known for years that with gerrymandered districts, the most competitive elections for many seats are in the primary election, not the general. It also completely overlooks the reality that as many as 1 in 3 general election voters have no, or inconsistent, primary voting history.

That’s why it’s important not to get caught up in the predictions. It doesn’t matter what the pundits say. Only voters know how they are casting their ballots. It’s possible someone who voted in one party’s primary will vote for the other party’s candidate in the general election. If you pay attention, you can find political types interpreting the early vote turnout both to the advantage and disadvantage of each party. They are cherry-picking the data to encourage and discourage turnout. But educators are smarter than that.

You have one vote; use it

At ATPE, our message this election is simple: You must be present to win.

Just because a social media forecast says the numbers look encouraging or concerning for one party or another doesn’t mean we should assume an outcome is settled. Every election brings its own circumstances, candidates, and voters. Analysts can and will make educated guesses, but at the end of the day, the results depend on the people who actually make it to the polls to cast their ballots.

You can’t make your voice heard if you stay home. You can’t count on someone else to represent your interests, your values, and the things that are important to you at the ballot box. Despite what people love to say about Texas, you can’t gerrymander a statewide race. Everyone’s vote counts. You should not let a prediction or past results convince you that your vote won’t matter.

Texas educators have a stake in the decisions made by the people who represent them, from education policy and school funding to the leadership of state agencies such as the Texas Education Agency. Participating in elections is one way to ensure educators’ voices are part of those decisions.

Check your voting information, make a plan, and cast your ballot. Then encourage your friends, family, and fellow educators to do the same. Remember to keep election-related advocacy separate from your official school duties, hours, and resources.

Don’t bet on or be discouraged by a prediction. So far, the only thing the early vote is telling us for sure is that more registered voters have yet to vote than already have. Don’t assume someone else will take care of it. Your vote matters, and you must be present to win.